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The anomaly engine

Sequence rules plus an own-data statistical check flag out-of-order events and unusually slow routes — with no false alarms on immature data.

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What it catches

The anomaly engine watches a tracked shipment for two kinds of trouble and surfaces them as amber badges on the timeline:

  • Sequence anomalies — events that don't make physical sense in order, e.g. an "out for delivery" after a "delivered", or a status that moves backwards. These come from deterministic rules, so they fire the moment the events contradict each other.
  • Unusually slow for the route — the shipment has already taken longer than the route's own slow-case (p90) by a clear margin. This is a statistical judgement against TrackJet's recorded transits, not a fixed threshold.

Why it stays quiet on thin data

The statistical check runs only on mature routes — those with enough real observations to know what "normal" even is (see [delivery forecast & transit stats](/docs/delivery-probability)). On a new or rare route there is no honest baseline, so the engine says nothing rather than cry wolf. Sequence rules still apply everywhere, because contradictory events are wrong regardless of sample size.

What a badge means — and what it does not

A badge means "worth a look", not "lost". An unusually-slow flag is a prompt to check with the carrier; it is not a claim that the shipment is delayed for a specific reason. The engine has no inside line to the carrier's operations — it reasons from the events and timings it can see.

It also won't invent problems: no events, or an immature route, means no statistical badge. A clean shipment shows nothing, which is itself information.

Route-wide slowdowns (as opposed to one shipment) surface in [congestion radar](/docs/congestion-radar); a predictable calendar risk at a border shows up as [customs friction](/docs/customs-friction).